Is Steve Jobs a Product of Randomness?

I always wonder how certain people–I can think of two, Buffett and Jobs–seem to have such conviction about the future and then be right about it. Steve Jobs has made gargantuan bets on the future of technology consumption that he must have had insane conviction to go through. We are talking about making devices that have buying music as a prerequisite, in a time where piracy is at the peak. How about making a phone that shakes up business models in telecom, advertising, technology, publishing, music, and movie industry? How about making a tablet that everyone thinks is going to fail, only to change the computer industry (and a bunch of others) forever?

Are Jobs and Buffett a product of randomness? As in, there are many with bold prediction and conviction that one or two are bound to be right? Some Nobel Prize winners seem to think so, as one debated Buffet about how much of his success was based on luck.

Personally, I strongly believe that Jobs’ and Buffet’s abilities are not due to randomness but a deep understanding of the systems that they operate in. If one understands his industry in a systematic standpoint, it’s not hard then to predict the future. Scientists have too long been too narrowly focus on the data they collected and the correlations they find that they forgo looking at the underlying world. Starting from the quantum revolution, Einstein had already complained about the lack of meaning or reality in quantum mechanics, while supporter of quantum theories respond that the reality isn’t of critical importance if their equations hold. That is until they don’t hold anymore.

I am a big believer in the underlying reality of the world. And because of that, I believe Jobs’ genius is genuine and would still have lasted had he been able to continue on.


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