Outstanding Analysis with Prediction

I came across this great analysis, succinctly written by Rajan. I like it because it demonstrates that everything is interconnected, and if you are able to see the important interconnections, you can see how the “system” functions, which allows you to make some good predictions (or conversely, it allows you to assess more accurately the causes of what’s happening right now).

When we look at Paul Ryan’s recent proposal through this lens, we’ll see that his proposal is more opportunistic than courageous. He made the proposal because his constituents’ sentiments had shifted toward an extreme during the debate, and his proposal pocketed him some short-term political gains while not truly addressing long-term issues such as the tax cuts for the rich. That is not courage; political courage to me means that you are willing to give up some self-interest short-term gains for the good of the country. Getting wild praises from your base (and  being reviled from the opposite side) does not make you courageous, it makes you politically smart. So please people, give him credits for his political savvy, but not courage.


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